Herbert Remmel has forwarded the following newspaper account
of the swing to the Alliance For Germany Party in
and the rout of the previous ‘Party of Government’: the Christian Democrats
Preliminary Thoughts Towards An Assessment Of The Election Results in Saxony-Anhalt From An Anti-Fascist Perspective
by
Ulrich Schneider
[National Executive member, Die Linke]
The high vote for the AfD [Alliance For Germany] in the Saxony-Anhalt State Election, which was held on 6th September, had been predicted in Opinion Polls. So has there been a “self-fulfilling prophesy”, or did the vote really reflect the popular mood in the area?
The electors and electresses who voted AfD may make the excuse that they didn’t know who or what they were voting for: but AfD’s “Hundred-Day Programme” and its militant social profile were abundantly well known.
It is significant that most of the AfD voter base is in the 30-60 age range: that is to say, these were people who had embraced every aspect of the ‘Wende’ [Turning Point]—the political, economic and social transition in East Germany, with all its cruel social consequences, including the devaluation of the gains achieved in social conditions, and the nullifying of hopes and expectations.
All this happened not just in Berlin, but also in Magdeburg. That seismic event has now led to this particular electorate turning to the AfD on the grounds that “Something has to change”: and that popular view has been apparent in countless vox pop interviews.
Moreover, this fundamental belief isn’t just confined to particular groupings or regions, but seems to have become widespread right across the country.
A look at the election results in the 41 Saxony-Anhalt Constituencies, broken down by first and second preference votes, shows that—with the exception of the Halle III Constituency (where the Greens were ahead)—it was the AfD which got the highest number of votes in every district. Not a single Christian Democrat, not a single Social Democrat, was able to win sufficient public confidence to be elected to the State Parliament!
It was this section of the electorate which channelled its disgust with governing policies—not just those emanating from Berlin but also from Magdeburg—into a vote for the AfD. That was the sentiment which predominated when pollsters asked people on the street for their views. People said: “Something has to change!”
And it was not just individual groups or regions that were gripped by this belief: it seems to prevail throughout the state.
A look at the Election Results in the 41 constituencies, broken down into First and Second Preference votes, shows that—with the exception of the Halle III Constituency (where the Greens prevailed)—the AfD won most votes in every district.
And the rout of the Governing Parties appears even more pronounced when First Count figures are considered. The only Party to win seats outright in Magdeburg and Halle was Die Linke [The Left], which managed to win three seats. All the rest went to the AfD.
Not a single member of the CDU [Christian Democratic Union] and not one Social Democrat could muster enough constituency votes to be elected to the State Parliament!
Of course the biggest loser was the Christian Democratic Union, which more than halved its vote. This is not just a setback for the current Minister-President, but also for Chancellor Merz—who is now being punished for all the anti-social policies on his agenda, even though he is unlikely to admit that!
And neither was the Minister-President [Olaf Lies, SPD, ed.] able to consolidate his position as “father figure” to the state—his constituency elected the AfD candidate: a clear rejection of Government policy.
An interesting angle is the fate of the SPD [Social Democratic Party of Germany]. In the election it once more tried to focus on social policy —a shift in roles which meant that those who wanted the existing Coalition to continue voted not CDU but SPD!—as is confirmed by polling data on voter intentions. As a result, the SPD was able to reconnect with at least a section of its old political base, although it remains poorly represented amongst workers.
The election produced an interesting outcome for the Greens: they won votes—not so much because of their election programme, but because voters feared that they could be wiped out in the State Parliament. That is why the urban middle class shifted its allegiance (as in Baden-Württemberg) away from from the Free Democrats—now considered passé in the light of their Government performance in the State Parliament—to the left-leaning Greens, who are seen as a left-bourgeois alternative to the AfD. This view is confirmed by an analysis of shifts in voting patterns, insofar as they can be traced.
The poor performance of the Left Party is striking, with just three direct mandates: despite conducting a strong campaign, particularly in urban areas, and raising important issues. In rural areas the Party garnered a largely negligible vote.
The Left Party was also affected by candidates fielded by BSW (Citizen Initiative For Social Justice [Sarah Wagenknecht]), which clearly also appealed to voters on various issues (peace and social justice). A lot of voters wanted to ensure its presence in the State Parliament—whether as an alternative to AfD, or as a “partner” it is not clear.
The resulting stalemate in the State Parliament presents a highly volatile situation for anti-fascists. A five-party coalition is not a long-term option: there is too much of a chasm separating the political positions of the parties. It might be that a CDU Minister-President is elected, for the sake of stability, but he would come under even greater AfD pressure than was the case in Thuringia.
The BSW announcement that it might vote with the AfD on specific issues might be shocking, but it reflects the long-standing CDU policy at regional level. It is therefore expected that Saxony-Anhalt will be a CDU testing ground on how to handle parliamentary relations with the AfD in the future.
Although there is a theoretical possibility that the State Parliament could be dissolved and new elections called if a Minister President fails to be elected after several attempts, in practice it is completely out of the question. The BSW will certainly not voluntarily relinquish the position it achieved in the election—and there can be no majority without its votes.
The speculation in the mainstream media is that there could be various ‘defectors’ to facilitate the formation of a Government—the initial ‘candidates’ being from the CDU!
An Assessment Of Anti-Fascist Counter-Movements.
We know that our own organisation, using all the resources at its disposal, and with support from neighbouring Counties, has attempted to mount a political opposition in various ways, including producing an election newspaper, mounting protests, supporting Democracy Festivals, along with other ways of engaging with the public. Important and commendable as this was, it had no discernible effect across the state.
While such activities were important in shaping public opinion in cities (Magdeburg, Halle, etc.), and establishing contacts with other social forces—which facilitates a united response to the new situation—our slogan “Ban the AfD now” had little effect in that particular debate.
The fact is that inhibitions against voting for the AfD are long gone—not only in Saxony-Anhalt but also in many other parts of Germany (see the State Elections in Baden Württemberg, Rhineland-Palatinate, or the Local Elections in Hesse). The AfD is now viewed as an “established Party” for which votes can be cast: and that is the media view as well.
Even when a politician like Alexander Dobrindt [Christian Social Union, and current Federal Minister of the Interior, ed.] makes a public pronouncement of a possible ban on the AfD, that is seen as nothing more than waffle: certainly not a serious political policy.
In the light of these developments we, as Anti-Fascists—in alliance with other social forces—will have to give serious consideration to developing a new strategy to counter the shift to the Right. The AfD may be the most radical political expression of this: but it is the governing parties which will give it practical effect.
Along with Trade Unions and other Civil Society forces, we must build alliances against the erosion of democratic rights and freedoms, as well as against militarisation and the arms race—with all the resulting cutbacks in social services and change for the worse in social life.
Our historical experience—the politics of Remembrance and Commemoration—is the unique contribution which we can and must bring to such alliances.
Ulrich Sander
(9.9.26, Dortmund)
Irish Political Review: Some Further Notes On The Election
France 24 reports that earlier in September the AfD captured the biggest vote share in a German State Election, after winning in Saxony-Anhalt earlier this month—thus boosting its momentum ahead of federal elections due in 2029.
Sarah Wagenknecht Statement:
Unlike the established parties, which refuse to engage in dialogue with the AfD, we at the BSW take the citizens’ vote seriously and are prepared to talk with all democratically elected forces. We want to use the majorities in the State Parliament to pursue a different energy policy, to improve education, to promote greater freedom of speech, and to send signals of peace and diplomacy.
In my interview with WELT TV, I discuss the issues on which we could envision substantive cooperation with the AfD and where our positions diverge.
[We are indebted to Chris Winch for this report, Ed.]
Martin Seale adds: BSW did not reach the 5% hurdle in either Berlin or Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, but it got close with 4.7% NS 4.8% respectively. It was the first time that BSW had stood in these elections.
Circumventing The National Veto?
It is reported that the German Government have proposed a plan to the European Union to enable Brussels to circumvent National Vetoes: under this opponents of proposed EU policies should abstain, rather than vote against.
With Viktor Orbán’s veto on EU decision-making now gone, a group of EU countries has proposed a plan to avoid a single country’s veto from blocking the pipes in Brussels in future.
Germany is leading a push for a greater use of abstentions and a more creative interpretation of the EU’s Treaties, according to a draft letter to Kaja Kallas, seen by Euractiv.
Berlin has long advocated abolishing the principle by which all foreign policy decisions, such as sanctions on Russia, must be decided unanimously by all 27 countries. But that irks smaller countries, who see unanimity as a potential lifeline. The German letter reads—“We must also ensure that this culture of consensus fosters common action rather than preventing it, otherwise we will have legitimacy but no strength”. In this it is supported by the Netherlands, Luxembourg and France.
The letter, due to be sent to Vice-President of the European Commission, Kaja Kallas ahead of a meeting of Foreign Ministers in Wicklow in September, proposes greater use of constructive abstentions, expanding the use of existing qualified-majority voting procedures [QMV], and tighter limits on Governments invoking national-policy objections…
Last week Slovenia stopped the EU from issuing a unified statement criticising the Israeli Government’s move to break the West Bank by building settlements in the E1 area, as defined by international law. Hungary, under President Orbán, repeatedly using its leverage over EU decisions to extract concessions, including guarantees over the Druzhba oil pipeline from Russia. Under Péter Magyar, Budapest has also blocked Ukraine from making enlargement progress.
Where QMV applies to a foreign policy decision, the countries acknowledge that Governments can oppose it for “vital and stated reasons of national policy”, but call for those objections to be clearly justified.
Countries should avoid linking together “substantially unrelated” issues, the letter states, and should raise concerns early enough to allow time for consultation and compromise. [We are grateful to Eamon Dyas for bringing this to our attention. See: https://www.euractiv.com/news/germans-pitch-eu-plan-to-circumvent-national-vetoes/]
