By-elections in Dublin Central and Galway West were held on 22nd May 2026.  In Dublin Central, the By-Election was to elect a successor to Fine Gael’s (FG) Paschal Donohoe, the former Minister of Finance who had moved westwards to Washington DC on appointment as the Managing Director and Chief Knowledge Officer at the World Bank in November 2025.  The Galway West By-Election was to elect a successor to the Independent TD, Catherine Connolly, who had moved eastwards on her election as President of Ireland in October 2025. 

In Dublin Central, the winning candidate was the Social Democrat’s (SD) Daniel Ennis and in Galway West, the spoils went to Sean Kyne (FG).  The long-established parties ran candidates in both constituencies and there was also a broad range of independent candidates.  The turnout in both constituencies was considerably down, compared to the November 2024 General Election as summarised below:

Turnout	General Election	By-Election	Change in Turnout
Constituency	%	%
Dublin    Central	52.3	43.2	-9.1
Galway West	58.0	46.2	-11.2

While there is no change in the overall political balance between Government and Opposition in the Dail, the detailed results throw up a range of issues.  The results for each contest are outlined, grouping the parties into 3 groups:

1. The governing FG/Fianna Fail (FF) coalition;
2. The Opposition to the Government’s ‘Left’ – Sinn Fein (SF), Labour, SD, People Before Profit (PBP) and the Greens.  For Galway West, the percentage vote for Catherine Connolly in the 2024 General Election is regarded as part of that group;
3. The Opposition to the Government’s ‘Right’ – Aontu, Independent Ireland (II), and Independents.

Dublin Central Vote Share (%)

	General Election	By-Election	Change %vote
FG	16.8	10.7	-6.2
FF	7.2	4.2	-3.0
Sub-     Total	24.0	14.9	-9.2
SF	23.3	17.4	-5.9
Labour	7.5	5.8	-1.7
SD	13.3	19.7	+6.4
PBP	4.5	6.7	+2.2
Greens	6.0	11.7	+5.7
Sub Total	54.6	61.3	+6.7
Aontu	2.2	2.0	-0.2
I Ireland	N/A	N/A	0
Ind	19.2	21.6	+2.4
Sub Total	21.4	23.6	+2.2

Galway West Vote Share (%)

	General Election	By-Election	Change %vote
FG	18.8	20.1	+1.3
FF	16.8	8.8	-8.0
Sub Total	35.6	28.9	-6.7
SF	13.5	6.7	-6.8
Labour	3.3	11.4	+8.1
SD	3.6	7.0	+3.4
PBP	1.5	1.1	-0.4
Greens	3.1	2.5	-0.6
Connolly	11.2	–	-11.2
Sub Total	36.2	28.7	-7.5
Aontu	2.0	2.4	+0.4
I Ireland	9.4	20.9	+11.5
Ind	16.7	19.0	+2.3
Sub Total	28.1	42.3	+14.2

In a proportional representation Single Transferable Vote (STV) system organised around constituencies, there are different dynamics at play in a by-election compared to a General Election. 

At a General Election in a 4-seat constituency like Dublin Central, the target to guarantee getting elected is 20 per cent of the vote, plus 1.  For a 5 -seat constituency like Galway West, the target is 16 and two-thirds per cent of the vote, plus 1.  In a by-election, the target is 50 per cent plus 1. 

This limits the potential number of candidates who can win to either 2 or 3.  This requires the combination of a significant First Preference vote along with being more transfer friendly to the voters of other parties than your rivals. 

In Dublin Central, early opinion polling had Sinn Fein ahead of the Social Democrats on first preference votes, but trailing the Social Democrats after second preference votes were brought into the frame (which was probably much to the relief of some in the media).

The ‘Third Man’ in Dublin Central was the independent, Gerard Hutch, who over the years has been of more interest to the TV & Newspapers’ crime & security correspondents rather than their political and parliamentary colleagues.  The whole point of striving for an end to Civil War politics is to ensure that the right sort of alternative is available!

In the end, Mr Hutch finished in fourth place on first preference votes and never acquired sufficient transfers to improve his relative position.  Nevertheless, had this been a contest to elect 4 TDs, he came within 500 votes of a quota for the seat!

The Social Democrats were elected on the final count without reaching the ‘50 per cent plus one’ quota, but with a clear winning margin over Sinn Fein of over 4,000 votes or 17 per cent of the total turnout.  

In parliamentary terms, the election of a Social Democrat TD means that the Social Democrats now take precedence over the Labour Party in terms of speaking rights in the Dail.  As a party, the Social Democrats are still in a honeymoon phase and, unlike Labour or the Greens, have never upset anyone by decisions made in Government.  Some years ago, this was put quite starkly by a Fianna Fail politician who congratulated the Greens on their entry into Government and followed it with a reminder that they were now playing senior Hurling! 

In Galway West, the early front runners were identified as Fine Gael’s Mr. Kyne and Noel Thomas of Independent Ireland.  Mr. Thomas had previously been a Fianna Fail member but resigned in 2024 after an arson attack on a hotel which had been earmarked to accommodate 70 asylum seekers.  He remarked “the inn is full” and that Ireland should not accept more refugees.  Some commentators did speculate about whether there was a possible route to success for the Labour candidate, Helen Ogbu—who would have then been the first black woman to become a TD—but consoled themselves with the expectation that Mr. Thomas would lose out on transfers. 

In the event, on polling day Mr. Thomas topped the poll with just over 10,000 votes, some 300 odd ahead of Mr. Kyne.  He remained in front until the final count, when Ms Ogbu was eliminated and her votes transferred in sufficient numbers to Mr. Kyne. to give him a winning margin of 2,700 or 5.6 per cent of the total turnout.

Much of the media analysis has focused on what the result means for Sinn Fein.  Yes, there were political missteps for Sinn Fein in both contests.  In Dublin Central, Mary Lou McDonald, as party leader and a sitting TD for the constituency, was unable to get her preferred candidate selected.  In Galway West, which includes the Gaeltacht, the Sinn Fein candidate, who was impressive on many levels, was not a fluent Gaelic speaker.

However, the real losers are Fianna Fail, with their derisory share of the First Preference vote in both constituencies.  The triumph of the 2024 General Election is a distant memory.  The by-elections are not an isolated fiasco.  It is up there with the Jim Gavin Presidential election campaign and the referendum on the Family. 

For Sinn Fein, the issue is one of ideology not circumstances.  Positioning themselves on the Left means an endless war with an Irish Left that is to varying degrees purist and tactically opportunist.  The way forward is to realign Irish politics by going into a long-term arrangement with Fianna Fail.  The Irish Times’ Northern Ireland-based pundit, Newton Emerson, noted that, within the NI Executive, Sinn Fein’s social and economic approach is centre left—with more emphasis on the centre rather than the left part.  While remaining silent on the Defence and Foreign Policy aspects, he concluded that such a stance translated across the Border would make them and Fianna Fail natural allies.  Whether the current leaders of either Party have the wisdom or will to adopt such an approach is another matter.     

David Jackson